The variety that Fed displays on the backhand side with one of the most consistent and low-dipping slices really troubled Ancic, and he never got into his groove despite winning a respectable 71% behind the first ball. Safin, who had 1-4 h2h deficit against Lopez, won a strange match on Court 1 against the Spaniard who appeared to be slightly in control both physically and mentally but couldn't make it count with scoreboard pressure. The Russian, as wild as ever, was warned for racket and ball abuse and he appeared somewhat reprieved at the rain break which halted Lopez's momentum and gave him a chance to re-assess things in the locker room. Marat delivered 18 aces, won 77% behind the first ball and executed just 23 unforced errors, while taking a handy 5 of his 8 break point opportunities. Safin was also able to pass the Spaniard with regularity and he won 19 of 48 approaches from Lopez, but there's no doubt Federer is a lot more sublime and measured with his forecourt game and won't be so generous. The h2h reads a telling 9-2 - Federer has won the past 3, leads the Grand Slam events 2-1 and has won both matches on grass including a virtual demolition here last year in the third round. That day, Safin saw just one break point and given Federer's incredible serving this fortnight (70 from 72 holds, 0.97 aces per game, 83% won behind first ball) that is unlikely to get better for the 75th ranked player in the world. Marat has always struggled with Roger's serve, and the champ has always had success at net where Safin has tended to try and hit through him at the net instead of play the smarts with angles and lobs. Safin has always struggled to hold him self together against the calm magician that is Federer, and no man plays off an opponent's body language better than the Swiss. If Safin is to even wake Federer from his semi-final coma, he will need to serve wonderfully well (which he hasn't this event - broken 14 times, winning only 77% behind first and 52% behind second which are way off the stats of Fed), must try and read the serves as he won't get a chance to return if he follows just the plight of the ball and needs to hold his mind together and remain patient.
However I think Safin can steal a set here. Playing on a grass he show a brilliance fit for his ablility. My pick is Federer 3:1 sets.
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